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Entry #1230: pick published

Hash verified

Iğdır FK v Boluspor: Home win 80% @ 1.16 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T10:11:03.717788+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 76ea2ef38b613abbbe700450a3e5392ad9fc1d66289487baf11afddcdb6fad47
Stored hash: 85b5771caf647ba96eba2b82ff29d91f755765865e57860e334c24f7033303be
Recomputed: 85b5771caf647ba96eba2b82ff29d91f755765865e57860e334c24f7033303be

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Boluspor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0188,
  "explanation": "Home win: 80% against a market price of 82% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals Iğdır FK 2.19 – 0.82 Boluspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 67% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 16% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nRest days (Iğdır FK 4, Boluspor 4) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nBoluspor's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nIğdır FK missing 0.7 regular starters; Boluspor missing 2.9 regular starters adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Boluspor 4-1-4-1, Iğdır FK 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 79% → 80% (+1.0 pts); Away win 7% → 6% (-0.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 82% → 82%.",
  "fixture": 1585792,
  "home": "Iğdır FK",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8188,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.16",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.7999,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Boluspor 4-1-4-1, Iğdır FK 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 79% → 80% (+1.0 pts); Away win 7% → 6% (-0.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 82% → 82%."
}

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