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{
  "away": "Shanghai Shenhua",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0105,
  "explanation": "Away win: 47% against a market price of 46% (+1.1%).\nExpected goals Wuhan Three Towns 1.40 – 1.96 Shanghai Shenhua.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nShanghai Shenhua's attack (1.37× the league rate) adds 3.5 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) takes 2.0 pts from away win.\nWuhan Three Towns's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nWuhan Three Towns's attack (0.90× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.1%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 33% → 30% (-2.8 pts); Away win 44% → 47% (+2.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 35% → 31%; Away win 43% → 46%.",
  "fixture": 1523280,
  "home": "Wuhan Three Towns",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4639,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.04",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4744,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 33% → 30% (-2.8 pts); Away win 44% → 47% (+2.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 35% → 31%; Away win 43% → 46%."
}