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{
  "away": "WSG Wattens",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0459,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 34% (+4.6%).\nExpected goals Wolfsberger AC 1.67 – 1.16 WSG Wattens.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 34% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nWSG Wattens's defence (1.08× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nWSG Wattens's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Wolfsberger AC 7, WSG Wattens 8) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 39% → 34%, draw 26% → 27%, away 35% → 39%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 39% (-2.9 pts); Draw 26% → 27% (+0.7 pts); Away win 32% → 34% (+2.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 39% → 34%; Draw 26% → 27%; Away win 35% → 39%.\nTag changed from Value to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1561947,
  "home": "Wolfsberger AC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3427,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.74",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3886,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 39% → 34%, draw 26% → 27%, away 35% → 39%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 39% (-2.9 pts); Draw 26% → 27% (+0.7 pts); Away win 32% → 34% (+2.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 39% → 34%; Draw 26% → 27%; Away win 35% → 39%.\nTag changed from Value to Upset Watch."
}