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{
  "away": "Verl",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0347,
  "explanation": "Away win: 29% against a market price of 26% (+3.5%).\nExpected goals Hoffenheim II 1.51 – 1.51 Verl.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nVerl's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nHoffenheim II's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nVerl's defence (0.94× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Hoffenheim II 4-2-3-1, Verl.\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 48% (+1.3 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Away win 25% → 26%.",
  "fixture": 1584039,
  "home": "Hoffenheim II",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2552,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "3.43",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.2898,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Hoffenheim II 4-2-3-1, Verl.\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 48% (+1.3 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Away win 25% → 26%."
}