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Entry #1253: pick published

Hash verified

SHANGHAI SIPG v Chengdu Better City: Home win 49% @ 2.00 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T11:41:10.373869+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 68491f942d6cdb5d64ed8d64fad24115056d321d09cf3745d79a78bcab9f10f8
Stored hash: 43421949cb10ca859aa6bb3b344e8553911330790f2e499f18e1e3a3c7d47d7c
Recomputed: 43421949cb10ca859aa6bb3b344e8553911330790f2e499f18e1e3a3c7d47d7c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Chengdu Better City",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0206,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 47% (+2.1%).\nExpected goals SHANGHAI SIPG 2.27 – 1.40 Chengdu Better City.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nSHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.30× the league rate) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nSHANGHAI SIPG missing 1.7 regular starters; Chengdu Better City missing 3.6 regular starters adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nChengdu Better City's defence (0.84× the league rate against) takes 1.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.1%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: SHANGHAI SIPG 4-2-3-1, Chengdu Better City 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 49% (+2.4 pts); Away win 30% → 28% (-2.4 pts).",
  "fixture": 1523282,
  "home": "SHANGHAI SIPG",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4727,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.00",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4932,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: SHANGHAI SIPG 4-2-3-1, Chengdu Better City 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 49% (+2.4 pts); Away win 30% → 28% (-2.4 pts)."
}

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