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Entry #1260: pick published

Hash verified

Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens: Away win 38% @ 2.45 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T12:21:16.175380+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 6deb16a8b3060a94cbf9cfeb8ea663710129fe3dce28e5a8f99de0134b5940c6
Stored hash: 6e768b9183f7a5b9d4c696ef0c1c4759d06ff3fd3999a19df25cc458cacd70b5
Recomputed: 6e768b9183f7a5b9d4c696ef0c1c4759d06ff3fd3999a19df25cc458cacd70b5

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "WSG Wattens",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0085,
  "explanation": "Away win: 38% against a market price of 39% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Wolfsberger AC 1.50 – 1.49 WSG Wattens.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 36% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 42% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nWolfsberger AC missing 3.8 regular starters; WSG Wattens missing 2.0 regular starters adds 5.1 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) takes 2.6 pts from away win.\nRest days (Wolfsberger AC 7, WSG Wattens 8) takes 1.1 pts from away win.\nWSG Wattens's attack (0.93× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.9%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: WSG Wattens 4-2-3-1, Wolfsberger AC 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 35% (-3.4 pts); Away win 34% → 38% (+3.7 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1561947,
  "home": "Wolfsberger AC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3852,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.45",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.3766,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: WSG Wattens 4-2-3-1, Wolfsberger AC 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 35% (-3.4 pts); Away win 34% → 38% (+3.7 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

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