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Entry #1259: pick published

Hash verified

Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia: Home win 39% @ 2.50 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T12:21:13.365558+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 5366137f6fe02fdcc3e8a062a8936bb517d546089d6d9e9a5600f5f3022179f2
Stored hash: 6deb16a8b3060a94cbf9cfeb8ea663710129fe3dce28e5a8f99de0134b5940c6
Recomputed: 6deb16a8b3060a94cbf9cfeb8ea663710129fe3dce28e5a8f99de0134b5940c6

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Jagiellonia",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0145,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 37% (+1.4%).\nExpected goals Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 – 1.37 Jagiellonia.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±7.4%), so it carries 34% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 3.1 pts to home win.\nZaglebie Lubin missing 1.0 regular starters; Jagiellonia missing 2.9 regular starters adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nRest days (Zaglebie Lubin 8, Jagiellonia 3) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nZaglebie Lubin's attack (0.93× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.4%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Jagiellonia 4-3-3, Zaglebie Lubin 3-4-1-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 39% (+1.3 pts); Away win 36% → 35% (-1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1553199,
  "home": "Zaglebie Lubin",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3716,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.50",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3861,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Jagiellonia 4-3-3, Zaglebie Lubin 3-4-1-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 39% (+1.3 pts); Away win 36% → 35% (-1.2 pts)."
}

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