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Entry #1258: pick published

Hash verified

Sarpsborg 08 FF v Rosenborg: Home win 40% @ 2.29 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T12:21:05.514996+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d94ac9fc5b8bef604ab5efff8e633e60a8ab8f3101f49c5ff386a0af72491d8d
Stored hash: 5366137f6fe02fdcc3e8a062a8936bb517d546089d6d9e9a5600f5f3022179f2
Recomputed: 5366137f6fe02fdcc3e8a062a8936bb517d546089d6d9e9a5600f5f3022179f2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Rosenborg",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.014,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 41% (-1.4%).\nExpected goals Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.64 – 1.66 Rosenborg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nRosenborg's attack (1.15× the league rate) takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nRosenborg's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.4%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rosenborg 4-4-2, Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 40% (-1.3 pts); Away win 35% → 36% (+1.3 pts).",
  "fixture": 1494784,
  "home": "Sarpsborg 08 FF",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eliteserien",
  "league_api_id": 103,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4114,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-103-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.29",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3974,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rosenborg 4-4-2, Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 40% (-1.3 pts); Away win 35% → 36% (+1.3 pts)."
}

#1257 #1259

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