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Entry #1261: pick published

Hash verified

Dynamo v CSKA Moscow: Home win 46% @ 2.11 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T12:30:36.689797+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 6e768b9183f7a5b9d4c696ef0c1c4759d06ff3fd3999a19df25cc458cacd70b5
Stored hash: 316cad5b00fcbc2594349ad0b3525c6508654f61fa7dac5e576a0cd1d3feadec
Recomputed: 316cad5b00fcbc2594349ad0b3525c6508654f61fa7dac5e576a0cd1d3feadec

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "CSKA Moscow",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0021,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 46% (-0.2%).\nExpected goals Dynamo 1.73 – 1.34 CSKA Moscow.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±9.6%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nDynamo's attack (1.28× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nCSKA Moscow's defence (0.84× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nCSKA Moscow's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.2%).\nWhat changed since v4:\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 46% (+4.6 pts); Draw 26% → 25% (-0.5 pts); Away win 33% → 28% (-4.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 41% → 46%; Draw 26% → 25%; Away win 33% → 28%.",
  "fixture": 1561413,
  "home": "Dynamo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4625,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.11",
  "prediction_version": 5,
  "probability": 0.4604,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v4:\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 46% (+4.6 pts); Draw 26% → 25% (-0.5 pts); Away win 33% → 28% (-4.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 41% → 46%; Draw 26% → 25%; Away win 33% → 28%."
}

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