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Entry #1263: pick published

Hash verified

Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor: Home win 43% @ 2.18 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T12:41:19.843175+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 90eb7a1287c5b1c07526b1cdfb628a1c5f0d5cd9da5f517d80751b4d32bf3237
Stored hash: 4879812a1c41099c47b1e3335b45638c38e1d8b37b17c006c6e7df5748e97784
Recomputed: 4879812a1c41099c47b1e3335b45638c38e1d8b37b17c006c6e7df5748e97784

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Ümraniyespor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0094,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 42% (+0.9%).\nExpected goals Vanspor FK 1.48 – 1.08 Ümraniyespor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 34% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 3.1 pts to home win.\nVanspor FK missing 0.5 regular starters; Ümraniyespor missing 1.3 regular starters adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nÜmraniyespor's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nÜmraniyespor's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.9%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ümraniyespor 4-3-3, Vanspor FK 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 43% (+1.5 pts); Draw 28% → 28% (-0.6 pts); Away win 30% → 29% (-0.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1585798,
  "home": "Vanspor FK",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4242,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.18",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4337,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ümraniyespor 4-3-3, Vanspor FK 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 43% (+1.5 pts); Draw 28% → 28% (-0.6 pts); Away win 30% → 29% (-0.9 pts)."
}

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