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Entry #1264: pick published

Hash verified

GIF Sundsvall v IFK Varnamo: Home win 23% @ 4.72 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T12:54:02.387778+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 4879812a1c41099c47b1e3335b45638c38e1d8b37b17c006c6e7df5748e97784
Stored hash: 75903e624c03ab2dcc23fae58d4220319f484908614564b50fbccc26369ffdc3
Recomputed: 75903e624c03ab2dcc23fae58d4220319f484908614564b50fbccc26369ffdc3

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "IFK Varnamo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0456,
  "explanation": "Home win: 23% against a market price of 19% (+4.6%).\nExpected goals GIF Sundsvall 1.50 – 1.63 IFK Varnamo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGIF Sundsvall's attack (0.82× the league rate) takes 2.3 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nGIF Sundsvall's defence (1.12× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nIFK Varnamo's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 21% → 19%, draw 23% → 22%, away 56% → 60%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 25% → 23% (-1.8 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-0.8 pts); Away win 51% → 54% (+2.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 21% → 19%; Draw 23% → 22%; Away win 56% → 60%.",
  "fixture": 1497727,
  "home": "GIF Sundsvall",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superettan",
  "league_api_id": 114,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1867,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-114-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "4.72",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.2323,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 21% → 19%, draw 23% → 22%, away 56% → 60%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 25% → 23% (-1.8 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-0.8 pts); Away win 51% → 54% (+2.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 21% → 19%; Draw 23% → 22%; Away win 56% → 60%."
}

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