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{
  "away": "Bate Borisov",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0427,
  "explanation": "Away win: 33% against a market price of 29% (+4.3%).\nExpected goals FC Dnepr Mogilev 0.94 – 1.14 Bate Borisov.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFC Dnepr Mogilev missing 3.5 regular starters; Bate Borisov missing 2.7 regular starters adds 3.3 pts to away win.\nFC Dnepr Mogilev's defence (1.22× the league rate against) adds 2.5 pts to away win.\nRest days (FC Dnepr Mogilev 7, Bate Borisov 4) takes 2.2 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.3% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Bate Borisov 3-4-3, FC Dnepr Mogilev 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 38% (-3.7 pts); Away win 30% → 33% (+3.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 42% → 43%; Away win 30% → 29%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1526002,
  "home": "FC Dnepr Mogilev",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.286,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "3.21",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3287,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Bate Borisov 3-4-3, FC Dnepr Mogilev 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 38% (-3.7 pts); Away win 30% → 33% (+3.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 42% → 43%; Away win 30% → 29%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}