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Entry #1255: pick published

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AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo: Away win 40% @ 2.37 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T11:41:17.780525+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 31817fe9af11d5dd814a8b88e8298aaf456e7e324faabafea3e441b027830bb0
Stored hash: 759610574c6efac62c765ffc70f94560c90389b374bcd56e484821f69c19366f
Recomputed: 759610574c6efac62c765ffc70f94560c90389b374bcd56e484821f69c19366f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Oviedo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0006,
  "explanation": "Away win: 40% against a market price of 40% (+0.1%).\nExpected goals AD Ceuta FC 1.13 – 1.28 Oviedo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nAD Ceuta FC's defence (1.12× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nAD Ceuta FC missing 3.2 regular starters; Oviedo missing 2.2 regular starters adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nOviedo's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.1%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Oviedo 4-4-2, AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 34% → 32% (-1.9 pts); Away win 38% → 40% (+1.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1569972,
  "home": "AD Ceuta FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3981,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.37",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3987,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Oviedo 4-4-2, AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 34% → 32% (-1.9 pts); Away win 38% → 40% (+1.9 pts)."
}

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