Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #1256: pick published

Hash verified

KuPS v VPS: Home win 59% @ 1.56 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T11:41:21.881020+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 759610574c6efac62c765ffc70f94560c90389b374bcd56e484821f69c19366f
Stored hash: 8e4b095dd4cd18807963ea9960d4bd3fa04dd8568521a3565455574863118628
Recomputed: 8e4b095dd4cd18807963ea9960d4bd3fa04dd8568521a3565455574863118628

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "VPS",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0213,
  "explanation": "Home win: 59% against a market price of 61% (-2.1%).\nExpected goals KuPS 1.69 – 0.96 VPS.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+21% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nKuPS's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nKuPS's attack (1.15× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nVPS's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.1%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: KuPS 4-2-3-1, VPS 3-4-1-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 61% → 59% (-1.9 pts); Away win 16% → 18% (+1.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 60% → 61%; Draw 24% → 23%; Away win 16% → 16%.\nTag changed from Banker to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1638109,
  "home": "KuPS",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Veikkausliiga",
  "league_api_id": 244,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6093,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-244-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.56",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.588,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: KuPS 4-2-3-1, VPS 3-4-1-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 61% → 59% (-1.9 pts); Away win 16% → 18% (+1.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 60% → 61%; Draw 24% → 23%; Away win 16% → 16%.\nTag changed from Banker to Avoid."
}

#1255 #1257

Latest entries

1280 in total