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{
  "combined_odds": "5.12",
  "combined_probability": 0.201073,
  "ev": 0.03,
  "explanation": "Balanced slip for Sun 18 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 5.12. By our numbers the fair price is 4.97, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 20.11% (about 1 in 5.0; likely range 19.35%–20.90%). The market's own prices imply 15.38%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 63.1%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +3% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be -7%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 0.6 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.09 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. Hoffenheim II v Verl: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80 — our 56% vs the market's 50% (+5.9%), EV +2%. Value: our 56% beats the market's 50%.\n2. Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.53 — our 66% vs the market's 61% (+4.6%), EV +1%. Banker: 66% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.\n3. SV Meppen v Havelse: Under 10.5 corners @ 1.86 — our 54% vs the market's 50% (+4.4%), EV +1%. Value: our 54% beats the market's 50%.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Banker/Value/Upset Watch whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 2% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise a balance of chance and expected value.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 5.0; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v7:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Norrby IF 4-4-2, United Nordic 4-4-2.\nRemoved: United Nordic v Norrby IF Under 3.5 goals — no longer eligible: does not beat the quoted price (EV -0.1%).\nAdded: SV Meppen v Havelse Under 10.5 corners @ 1.86 (Value).\nCombined odds 4.49 → 5.12; chance 22.81% → 20.11%; EV +2% → +3%.",
  "fair_odds": "4.97",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1584039,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "3. Liga",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.5046,
      "match": "Hoffenheim II v Verl",
      "odds": "1.80",
      "probability": 0.564,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "value"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1560256,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "NB I",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.6131,
      "match": "Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC",
      "odds": "1.53",
      "probability": 0.6589,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1584041,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "3. Liga",
      "market": "COR10.5",
      "market_probability": 0.4971,
      "match": "SV Meppen v Havelse",
      "odds": "1.86",
      "probability": 0.5411,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "value"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 1229,
  "slate": "2026-10-18",
  "slip": 51,
  "stake_units": 0.09,
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "balanced",
  "variant_name": "Balanced",
  "version": 8,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v7:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Norrby IF 4-4-2, United Nordic 4-4-2.\nRemoved: United Nordic v Norrby IF Under 3.5 goals — no longer eligible: does not beat the quoted price (EV -0.1%).\nAdded: SV Meppen v Havelse Under 10.5 corners @ 1.86 (Value).\nCombined odds 4.49 → 5.12; chance 22.81% → 20.11%; EV +2% → +3%."
}