Check any pick we ever made

{
  "combined_odds": "4.49",
  "combined_probability": 0.228101,
  "ev": 0.024,
  "explanation": "Safe slip for Sun 18 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 4.49. By our numbers the fair price is 4.38, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 22.81% (about 1 in 4.4; likely range 22.00%–23.65%). The market's own prices imply 17.80%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 66.6%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +2% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be -7%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 0.5 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.09 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. United Nordic v Norrby IF: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.63 — our 61% vs the market's 58% (+3.9%), EV +0%. Banker: 61% likely, uncertainty only ±1.2%, market agrees.\n2. Hoffenheim II v Verl: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80 — our 56% vs the market's 50% (+5.9%), EV +2%. Value: our 56% beats the market's 50%.\n3. Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.53 — our 66% vs the market's 61% (+4.6%), EV +1%. Banker: 66% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Banker/Value whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 1% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise the chance of landing.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 4.4; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v6:\nRemoved: Alianza Atletico v Universitario Under 9.5 corners — re-tagged Banker → Value.\nAdded: Hoffenheim II v Verl Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80 (Value).\nCombined odds 4.16 → 4.49; chance 24.76% → 22.81%; EV +3% → +2%.",
  "fair_odds": "4.38",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1497723,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "Superettan",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.5753,
      "match": "United Nordic v Norrby IF",
      "odds": "1.63",
      "probability": 0.6138,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1584039,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "3. Liga",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.5046,
      "match": "Hoffenheim II v Verl",
      "odds": "1.80",
      "probability": 0.564,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "value"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1560256,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "NB I",
      "market": "OU35",
      "market_probability": 0.6131,
      "match": "Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC",
      "odds": "1.53",
      "probability": 0.6589,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "banker"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 1213,
  "slate": "2026-10-18",
  "slip": 49,
  "stake_units": 0.09,
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "safe",
  "variant_name": "Safe",
  "version": 7,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v6:\nRemoved: Alianza Atletico v Universitario Under 9.5 corners — re-tagged Banker → Value.\nAdded: Hoffenheim II v Verl Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80 (Value).\nCombined odds 4.16 → 4.49; chance 24.76% → 22.81%; EV +3% → +2%."
}