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{
  "away": "SJK",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0049,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 50% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Ilves 1.89 – 1.48 SJK.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nIlves's attack (1.25× the league rate) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nSJK's attack (1.10× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1638089,
  "home": "Ilves",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Veikkausliiga",
  "league_api_id": 244,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5002,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-244-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.89",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4953,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}