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Entry #279: pick published

Hash verified

SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig: Home win 45% @ 2.12 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:56.089625+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d3dd942c4a3ded9ae131419f3fea6389a7830f86f051365b59afb3d868beb973
Stored hash: 311f7980918dbe3dce14f4f0ba0927ffba5908ceddd371d7b21d345ea1836fbb
Recomputed: 311f7980918dbe3dce14f4f0ba0927ffba5908ceddd371d7b21d345ea1836fbb

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Eintracht Braunschweig",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0044,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 44% (+0.4%).\nExpected goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.62 – 1.23 Eintracht Braunschweig.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±6.1%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nEintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nSpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.07× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nEintracht Braunschweig's defence (1.04× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.4%).",
  "fixture": 1576199,
  "home": "SpVgg Greuther Fürth",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 79,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4446,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-79-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.12",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.449,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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