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{
  "away": "1. FC Heidenheim",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.025,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 57% (-2.5%).\nExpected goals VfL Wolfsburg 1.81 – 1.40 1. FC Heidenheim.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nVfL Wolfsburg's attack (1.12× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\n1. FC Heidenheim's attack (1.04× the league rate) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).",
  "fixture": 1576205,
  "home": "VfL Wolfsburg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 79,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5707,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-79-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.67",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5458,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}