Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #281: pick published

Hash verified

Everton v Chelsea: Home win 34% @ 3.13 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:59.700176+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 72c3688e90f71fb1c39fe4b3e1f6ad68368ee16fd88de719655d29671fa3a377
Stored hash: 73cabf19761fc51b5bc7b1e63f4a714257970308118909ca18774c35f1f0d388
Recomputed: 73cabf19761fc51b5bc7b1e63f4a714257970308118909ca18774c35f1f0d388

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Chelsea",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0342,
  "explanation": "Home win: 34% against a market price of 30% (+3.4%).\nExpected goals Everton 1.69 – 1.25 Chelsea.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nRest days (Everton 6, Chelsea 7) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nChelsea's attack (1.12× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nChelsea's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1557430,
  "home": "Everton",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 39,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3041,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-39-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "3.13",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3384,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#280 #282

Latest entries

1323 in total