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{
  "away": "Piast Gliwice",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0336,
  "explanation": "Home win: 58% against a market price of 61% (-3.4%).\nExpected goals Gornik Zabrze 1.70 – 1.08 Piast Gliwice.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 3.1 pts to home win.\nGornik Zabrze's defence (0.88× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nGornik Zabrze missing 1.5 regular starters; Piast Gliwice missing 1.2 regular starters adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nGornik Zabrze's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.4%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3, Piast Gliwice 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 57% → 58% (+1.4 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-1.0 pts).",
  "fixture": 1553193,
  "home": "Gornik Zabrze",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.613,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.55",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5793,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3, Piast Gliwice 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 57% → 58% (+1.4 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-1.0 pts)."
}