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Entry #1222: pick published

Hash verified

Ural v Nizhny Novgorod: Away win 37% @ 2.79 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T09:41:04.835464+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: fd192a4e3072de32cc94b2bacb98f6959f5c04979360793b40929c54efbe65fe
Stored hash: 4aa84c58933a29d3a5a2580bd71015f04ca1efc00135ab3045666501affc377c
Recomputed: 4aa84c58933a29d3a5a2580bd71015f04ca1efc00135ab3045666501affc377c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Nizhny Novgorod",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0292,
  "explanation": "Away win: 37% against a market price of 34% (+2.9%).\nExpected goals Ural 1.56 – 2.11 Nizhny Novgorod.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±10.1%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nNizhny Novgorod's attack (1.81× the league rate) adds 4.2 pts to away win.\nRest days (Ural 8, Nizhny Novgorod 4) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nUral's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.9%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Nizhny Novgorod, Ural.\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 35% (-1.3 pts); Away win 35% → 37% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 37% → 36%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1577555,
  "home": "Ural",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3393,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.79",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3685,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Nizhny Novgorod, Ural.\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 35% (-1.3 pts); Away win 35% → 37% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 37% → 36%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win."
}

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