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{
  "away": "Rustavi",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0093,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 38% (+0.9%).\nExpected goals Torpedo Kutaisi 1.45 – 1.20 Rustavi.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRustavi's defence (0.85× the league rate against) takes 1.8 pts from home win.\nTorpedo Kutaisi's attack (1.18× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+14% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.9%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 33% → 38%, draw 29% → 28%, away 38% → 33%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 39% (+3.8 pts); Away win 36% → 33% (-3.7 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 33% → 38%; Away win 38% → 33%.\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.",
  "fixture": 1509202,
  "home": "Torpedo Kutaisi",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Erovnuli Liga",
  "league_api_id": 327,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3829,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-327-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.37",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3922,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 33% → 38%, draw 29% → 28%, away 38% → 33%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 39% (+3.8 pts); Away win 36% → 33% (-3.7 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 33% → 38%; Away win 38% → 33%.\nPick changed from Away win to Home win."
}