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Entry #284: pick published

Hash verified

Samgurali v Meshakhte: Away win 21% @ 5.08 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:05.432701+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: fa75ffca9894b9926d741b6a0b871cab5da09a5ef4944944c0b7d84c1a98dc4a
Stored hash: a728eb99ed09ee5b709c7c084db7b1f80c3062df987b8c523ade437a1c0f33ff
Recomputed: a728eb99ed09ee5b709c7c084db7b1f80c3062df987b8c523ade437a1c0f33ff

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Meshakhte",
  "bookmakers": 4,
  "edge": 0.0452,
  "explanation": "Away win: 21% against a market price of 16% (+4.5%).\nExpected goals Samgurali 1.66 – 1.25 Meshakhte.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 29% (uncertainty ±5.7%), so it carries 40% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nMeshakhte's attack (0.85× the league rate) takes 2.0 pts from away win.\nSamgurali's defence (1.14× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+14% goals at home) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nSamgurali's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.5% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1509201,
  "home": "Samgurali",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Erovnuli Liga",
  "league_api_id": 327,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1624,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-327-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "5.08",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2076,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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