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{
  "away": "Rotherham",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0002,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals Fleetwood Town 1.35 – 1.10 Rotherham.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nRotherham's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nFleetwood Town's attack (0.96× the league rate) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1563806,
  "home": "Fleetwood Town",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "League Two",
  "league_api_id": 42,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4259,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-42-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.21",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4261,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}