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Entry #285: pick published

Hash verified

Peterborough v Burton Albion: Home win 49% @ 1.84 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:07.364574+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: a728eb99ed09ee5b709c7c084db7b1f80c3062df987b8c523ade437a1c0f33ff
Stored hash: 98d30b258b9f1886d4f51f31091b071db1b1c9ca15c324b07fdaee1bd760252e
Recomputed: 98d30b258b9f1886d4f51f31091b071db1b1c9ca15c324b07fdaee1bd760252e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Burton Albion",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0237,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 52% (-2.4%).\nExpected goals Peterborough 1.44 – 1.21 Burton Albion.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±7.6%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+21% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nBurton Albion's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nPeterborough's defence (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.4%).",
  "fixture": 1564361,
  "home": "Peterborough",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "League One",
  "league_api_id": 41,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5173,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-41-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.84",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4936,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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