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Entry #288: pick published

Hash verified

Watford v Charlton: Home win 39% @ 2.42 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:13.217319+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 9119af2ed481ccc48120703d2f541f55643e9bff50833638547e4d74a041e0b6
Stored hash: fcb5324dac0973fa65c4b3c5fa39edbfb41751defd27582a020b9efe03eb5809
Recomputed: fcb5324dac0973fa65c4b3c5fa39edbfb41751defd27582a020b9efe03eb5809

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Charlton",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0141,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 38% (+1.4%).\nExpected goals Watford 1.39 – 1.16 Charlton.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 40% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nWatford's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 2.0 pts from home win.\nCharlton's attack (0.85× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nWatford's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.4%).",
  "fixture": 1563212,
  "home": "Watford",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Championship",
  "league_api_id": 40,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3772,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-40-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.42",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3914,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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