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Entry #289: pick published

Hash verified

Millwall v Lincoln: Home win 57% @ 1.62 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:14.728490+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: fcb5324dac0973fa65c4b3c5fa39edbfb41751defd27582a020b9efe03eb5809
Stored hash: d8b2cc5570fff140ba0e6c013b42caf14a6d64928af16252a3b7520db5f39984
Recomputed: d8b2cc5570fff140ba0e6c013b42caf14a6d64928af16252a3b7520db5f39984

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Lincoln",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0366,
  "explanation": "Home win: 57% against a market price of 61% (-3.7%).\nExpected goals Millwall 1.65 – 1.10 Lincoln.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±6.1%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nLincoln's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nLincoln's defence (1.03× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nMillwall's defence (0.95× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.7%).",
  "fixture": 1563208,
  "home": "Millwall",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Championship",
  "league_api_id": 40,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6092,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-40-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.62",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5726,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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