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Entry #290: pick published

Hash verified

Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang Urban: Home win 18% @ 6.18 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:16.461402+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d8b2cc5570fff140ba0e6c013b42caf14a6d64928af16252a3b7520db5f39984
Stored hash: 98e2eed4227694f32a012954a46a56afe847a64e4433a33593337cb250cf5597
Recomputed: 98e2eed4227694f32a012954a46a56afe847a64e4433a33593337cb250cf5597

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Shenyang Urban",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0437,
  "explanation": "Home win: 18% against a market price of 14% (+4.4%).\nExpected goals Qingdao Jonoon 2.14 – 1.70 Shenyang Urban.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±9.4%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nQingdao Jonoon's attack (0.88× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nQingdao Jonoon's defence (1.10× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nShenyang Urban's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.4% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1523277,
  "home": "Qingdao Jonoon",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:35:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1392,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "6.18",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.183,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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