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Entry #291: pick published

Hash verified

Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long: Home win 60% @ 1.59 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:17.513032+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 98e2eed4227694f32a012954a46a56afe847a64e4433a33593337cb250cf5597
Stored hash: 3fab841ff28129c2eb3a44d8b357ac80274fa8815ad4609c2cf77f79f4a26a89
Recomputed: 3fab841ff28129c2eb3a44d8b357ac80274fa8815ad4609c2cf77f79f4a26a89

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Chongqing Tongliang Long",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0016,
  "explanation": "Home win: 60% against a market price of 60% (-0.2%).\nExpected goals Yunnan Yukun 2.51 – 1.49 Chongqing Tongliang Long.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±10.3%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nYunnan Yukun's attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nChongqing Tongliang Long's attack (0.82× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nYunnan Yukun's defence (1.14× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.2%).",
  "fixture": 1523278,
  "home": "Yunnan Yukun",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:35:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5994,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.59",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5978,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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