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Entry #292: pick published

Hash verified

Arsenal W v Birmingham City W: Home win 89% @ 1.06 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:18.467972+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 3fab841ff28129c2eb3a44d8b357ac80274fa8815ad4609c2cf77f79f4a26a89
Stored hash: 7986e58175cee6966c016e91e8a18ccd6c4b1b3098fa8dd9e642a8ae4e580e6e
Recomputed: 7986e58175cee6966c016e91e8a18ccd6c4b1b3098fa8dd9e642a8ae4e580e6e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Birmingham City W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0053,
  "explanation": "Home win: 89% against a market price of 90% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Arsenal W 3.10 – 1.08 Birmingham City W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 75% (uncertainty ±12.4%), so it carries 6% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nArsenal W's attack (1.50× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nArsenal W's defence (0.69× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nBirmingham City W's defence (1.19× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 89% likely, uncertainty only ±0.7%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1607699,
  "home": "Arsenal W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "FA WSL",
  "league_api_id": 44,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8988,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-44-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.06",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.8935,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "89% likely, uncertainty only ±0.7%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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