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Entry #293: pick published

Hash verified

Brommapojkarna W v Växjö W: Home win 52% @ 1.81 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:19.247972+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 7986e58175cee6966c016e91e8a18ccd6c4b1b3098fa8dd9e642a8ae4e580e6e
Stored hash: ee67c29ff366c4524df292ad7ae56e7fb0adf15d192c1eb620eebd27ba1880c8
Recomputed: ee67c29ff366c4524df292ad7ae56e7fb0adf15d192c1eb620eebd27ba1880c8

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Växjö W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0114,
  "explanation": "Home win: 52% against a market price of 51% (+1.1%).\nExpected goals Brommapojkarna W 2.22 – 1.43 Växjö W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±9.4%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nVäxjö W's defence (1.28× the league rate against) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nBrommapojkarna W's defence (1.22× the league rate against) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nBrommapojkarna W's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.1%).",
  "fixture": 1495582,
  "home": "Brommapojkarna W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Damallsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 549,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5111,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-549-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.81",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5225,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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