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Entry #294: pick published

Hash verified

SSV Jahn Regensburg v SV Wehen: Home win 40% @ 2.29 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:20.342452+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ee67c29ff366c4524df292ad7ae56e7fb0adf15d192c1eb620eebd27ba1880c8
Stored hash: 3835f0fffaa8240bcd078fa477d52d27a707356fc6eee7e3befa193962bc90cf
Recomputed: 3835f0fffaa8240bcd078fa477d52d27a707356fc6eee7e3befa193962bc90cf

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "SV Wehen",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0047,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 39% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.45 – 1.25 SV Wehen.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nSV Wehen's defence (0.97× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1584042,
  "home": "SSV Jahn Regensburg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.394,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.29",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3987,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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