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{
  "away": "Cardiff",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0266,
  "explanation": "Home win: 60% against a market price of 63% (-2.7%).\nExpected goals Middlesbrough 1.89 – 1.23 Cardiff.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±7.4%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nMiddlesbrough's attack (1.12× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nCardiff's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nMiddlesbrough's defence (0.95× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.7%).",
  "fixture": 1563207,
  "home": "Middlesbrough",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Championship",
  "league_api_id": 40,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6312,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-40-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.53",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6047,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}