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Entry #296: pick published

Hash verified

Malmö FF W v AIK W: Home win 64% @ 1.48 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:22.369450+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 156fdb796d1eced79496ea88777b54a0c43902a4d291ade5b3daac8342d4f057
Stored hash: 80d5a92cfd7eb5109f647bf2ce30ce75dffd4cd88fb322f7e0894c0401631ff2
Recomputed: 80d5a92cfd7eb5109f647bf2ce30ce75dffd4cd88fb322f7e0894c0401631ff2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "AIK W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.012,
  "explanation": "Home win: 64% against a market price of 63% (+1.2%).\nExpected goals Malmö FF W 2.26 – 0.77 AIK W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 71% (uncertainty ±7.9%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nMalmö FF W's attack (1.43× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nMalmö FF W's defence (0.58× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 64% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1495583,
  "home": "Malmö FF W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Damallsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 549,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6304,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-549-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.48",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6424,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "64% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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