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Entry #297: pick published

Hash verified

Shandong Luneng v Hangzhou Greentown: Home win 55% @ 1.72 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:24.215288+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 80d5a92cfd7eb5109f647bf2ce30ce75dffd4cd88fb322f7e0894c0401631ff2
Stored hash: 20010c3a6e7a08458f9991e7523ac7278cd8eafb47aea6c2028595c21c107885
Recomputed: 20010c3a6e7a08458f9991e7523ac7278cd8eafb47aea6c2028595c21c107885

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Hangzhou Greentown",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0066,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 55% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals Shandong Luneng 2.70 – 2.05 Hangzhou Greentown.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±9.6%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nShandong Luneng's attack (1.20× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nHangzhou Greentown's attack (1.15× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nHangzhou Greentown's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1523279,
  "home": "Shandong Luneng",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5529,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.72",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5463,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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