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Entry #298: pick published

Hash verified

Ham-Kam v Bodo/Glimt: Away win 75% @ 1.24 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:25.856906+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 20010c3a6e7a08458f9991e7523ac7278cd8eafb47aea6c2028595c21c107885
Stored hash: 6fdffa6ec469eb51168ff76920f21b0780bf70917017bb4897d44c80bc4e4610
Recomputed: 6fdffa6ec469eb51168ff76920f21b0780bf70917017bb4897d44c80bc4e4610

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Bodo/Glimt",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0202,
  "explanation": "Away win: 75% against a market price of 77% (-2.0%).\nExpected goals Ham-Kam 1.27 – 2.61 Bodo/Glimt.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 66% (uncertainty ±7.7%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nBodo/Glimt's attack (1.61× the league rate) adds 4.1 pts to away win.\nBodo/Glimt's defence (0.78× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nRest days (Ham-Kam 6, Bodo/Glimt 3) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.0%).",
  "fixture": 1494780,
  "home": "Ham-Kam",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eliteserien",
  "league_api_id": 103,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7741,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-103-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.24",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7539,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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