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Entry #305: pick published

Hash verified

Real Sociedad II v Almeria: Home win 30% @ 3.54 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:36.880394+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: a6a2fcbf9cb3d1c118551be24facae536a22a672514aa7597cb1c0bc186b9f9c
Stored hash: 8d393520e75d9e9147419950e926533606c841cbcd9e0ada7b8d7a1f9b1ea65f
Recomputed: 8d393520e75d9e9147419950e926533606c841cbcd9e0ada7b8d7a1f9b1ea65f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Almeria",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0357,
  "explanation": "Home win: 30% against a market price of 26% (+3.6%).\nExpected goals Real Sociedad II 1.31 – 1.47 Almeria.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±5.5%), so it carries 49% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 3.4 pts to home win.\nAlmeria's attack (1.24× the league rate) takes 2.9 pts from home win.\nReal Sociedad II's defence (1.09× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nRest days (Real Sociedad II 7, Almeria 6) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.6% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1569979,
  "home": "Real Sociedad II",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2604,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.54",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2961,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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