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Entry #306: pick published

Hash verified

Kudrivka v Bukovyna: Away win 56% @ 1.64 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:37.773457+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 8d393520e75d9e9147419950e926533606c841cbcd9e0ada7b8d7a1f9b1ea65f
Stored hash: b796c43daa1f6401d0a9339cc1f845d384bd291f1108a60115f6eb5a5f1a1140
Recomputed: b796c43daa1f6401d0a9339cc1f845d384bd291f1108a60115f6eb5a5f1a1140

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Bukovyna",
  "bookmakers": 4,
  "edge": -0.0194,
  "explanation": "Away win: 56% against a market price of 58% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals Kudrivka 0.77 – 1.07 Bukovyna.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±12.2%), so it carries 11% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nKudrivka's defence (1.38× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nBukovyna's attack (0.89× the league rate) takes 0.3 pts from away win.\nRest days (Kudrivka 6, Bukovyna 6) takes 0.3 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).",
  "fixture": 1565501,
  "home": "Kudrivka",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 333,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5784,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-333-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.64",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.559,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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