Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #307: pick published

Hash verified

Nyiregyhaza v Budapest Honved: Home win 45% @ 2.00 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:38.646480+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b796c43daa1f6401d0a9339cc1f845d384bd291f1108a60115f6eb5a5f1a1140
Stored hash: 35d2b7b094bd86bbe79edb3bfbf5c331da855676d073066f2b01e2467088eb0e
Recomputed: 35d2b7b094bd86bbe79edb3bfbf5c331da855676d073066f2b01e2467088eb0e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Budapest Honved",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0121,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 46% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals Nyiregyhaza 1.68 – 1.61 Budapest Honved.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±9.1%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nNyiregyhaza's defence (1.11× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nBudapest Honved's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).",
  "fixture": 1560258,
  "home": "Nyiregyhaza",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.464,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.00",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4518,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#306 #308

Latest entries

1523 in total