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{
  "away": "Slask Wroclaw",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0242,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 52% (-2.4%).\nExpected goals Motor Lublin 1.70 – 1.32 Slask Wroclaw.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 39% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 3.8 pts to home win.\nSlask Wroclaw's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nRest days (Motor Lublin 5, Slask Wroclaw 7) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nMotor Lublin's defence (1.07× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.4%).",
  "fixture": 1553195,
  "home": "Motor Lublin",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5155,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.83",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4912,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}