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{
  "away": "Galatasaray",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0153,
  "explanation": "Away win: 68% against a market price of 70% (-1.5%).\nExpected goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.08 – 2.08 Galatasaray.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±9.4%), so it carries 15% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGalatasaray's attack (1.57× the league rate) adds 2.9 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nGençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack (0.84× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nRest days (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 7, Galatasaray 4) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.5%).",
  "fixture": 1584435,
  "home": "Gençlerbirliği S.K.",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Süper Lig",
  "league_api_id": 203,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6952,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-203-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.38",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.68,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}