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{
  "away": "Virtus Entella",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0181,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 38% (+1.8%).\nExpected goals Padova 1.48 – 1.08 Virtus Entella.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+33% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nPadova's attack (0.88× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nVirtus Entella's attack (0.90× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.8%).",
  "fixture": 1601559,
  "home": "Padova",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 136,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3834,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-136-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.44",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4015,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}