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{
  "away": "Zemun",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0136,
  "explanation": "Home win: 67% against a market price of 69% (-1.4%).\nExpected goals Cukaricki 2.00 – 0.98 Zemun.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±9.4%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nZemun's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nZemun's attack (0.77× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.4%).",
  "fixture": 1553886,
  "home": "Cukaricki",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 286,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6858,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-286-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.37",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6722,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}