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{
  "away": "Juventud",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0246,
  "explanation": "Away win: 42% against a market price of 44% (-2.5%).\nExpected goals Progreso 1.14 – 1.22 Juventud.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nProgreso's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nProgreso's defence (1.08× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nJuventud's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).",
  "fixture": 1644699,
  "home": "Progreso",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 268,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4448,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-268-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.08",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4202,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}