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Entry #330: pick published

Hash verified

Floridsdorfer AC v Admira Wacker: Home win 41% @ 2.25 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:02:07.861691+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ecf9123b865871698e8dae3ed886c53c12a2088bb6c12071f5a90b0436be6cc3
Stored hash: af173d3e487743d739285b13e048cbf3de06d4485f8440e70de9fabf8c7a7e0d
Recomputed: af173d3e487743d739285b13e048cbf3de06d4485f8440e70de9fabf8c7a7e0d

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Admira Wacker",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0017,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 41% (+0.2%).\nExpected goals Floridsdorfer AC 1.33 – 1.10 Admira Wacker.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nFloridsdorfer AC's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nAdmira Wacker's defence (0.85× the league rate against) takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nRest days (Floridsdorfer AC 7, Admira Wacker 6) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.2%).",
  "fixture": 1567928,
  "home": "Floridsdorfer AC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 219,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.413,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-219-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.25",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4147,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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