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{
  "away": "Milford FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0057,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 41% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Golden Arrows 1.10 – 0.89 Milford FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±10.7%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nMilford FC's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).",
  "fixture": 1600355,
  "home": "Golden Arrows",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier Soccer League",
  "league_api_id": 288,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4125,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-288-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.23",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4068,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}