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{
  "away": "AS Trencin",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0029,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (+0.3%).\nExpected goals Skalica 1.45 – 1.18 AS Trencin.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSkalica's attack (0.84× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nAS Trencin's attack (0.83× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+13% goals at home) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nAS Trencin's defence (1.12× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.3%).",
  "fixture": 1551578,
  "home": "Skalica",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 332,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4297,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-332-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.18",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4326,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}