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Entry #333: pick published

Hash verified

Dinamo Makhachkala v Akron: Home win 45% @ 2.11 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:02:10.931001+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 0ad132064f1886d769a4074df3ce595ff5a6f316aab103bec4c1566320c7a030
Stored hash: 90c198aedd97232da8091227531be3306a52f7a6230a171c16d5986720fb682a
Recomputed: 90c198aedd97232da8091227531be3306a52f7a6230a171c16d5986720fb682a

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Akron",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0154,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 46% (-1.5%).\nExpected goals Dinamo Makhachkala 1.40 – 1.26 Akron.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAkron's defence (1.22× the league rate against) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+21% goals at home) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nRest days (Dinamo Makhachkala 3, Akron 4) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nDinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.88× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.5%).",
  "fixture": 1561412,
  "home": "Dinamo Makhachkala",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4617,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.11",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4464,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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