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Entry #334: pick published

Hash verified

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz v SKU Amstetten: Away win 46% @ 2.10 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:02:11.838412+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 90c198aedd97232da8091227531be3306a52f7a6230a171c16d5986720fb682a
Stored hash: 1a9ee9c03a3b738fa43102aeb8cf025a1d8c132646078d503cfcbc8a56ff4f02
Recomputed: 1a9ee9c03a3b738fa43102aeb8cf025a1d8c132646078d503cfcbc8a56ff4f02

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "SKU Amstetten",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0108,
  "explanation": "Away win: 46% against a market price of 45% (+1.1%).\nExpected goals Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 1.57 – 2.04 SKU Amstetten.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±9.2%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSchwarz-Weiß Bregenz's defence (1.28× the league rate against) adds 2.7 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nRest days (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 7, SKU Amstetten 8) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nSKU Amstetten's attack (1.03× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.1%).",
  "fixture": 1567926,
  "home": "Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 219,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4456,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-219-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.10",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4565,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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